Modeling dengue outbreaks

MARCELO OTERO; DANIEL BARMAK; CLAUDIO O. DORSO; HERNÁN GUSTAVO SOLARI; MARIO NATIELLO

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES

ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC

Lugar: Amsterdam; Año: 2011 vol. 232 p. 87 - 95

0025-5564

We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience.