Datos climáticos y prácticas recomendadas para proyectar cambios en la distribución de especies

CARRIL, ANDREA F.; FLOMBAUM, PEDRO; MENÉNDEZ, CLAUDIO G.

DARWINIANA

INSTITUTO DE BOTÁNICA DARWINION

Año: 2023 vol. 11 p. 367 - 389

0011-6793

Climate change is a complex phenomenon that affects all socio-environmental systems, manifestingitself uniquely in different regions. To comprehensively understand and project the extent of itsimpact, it is crucial to engage in a collaborative effort involving specialists from various disciplines.The international scientific community has made significant progress in developing diverse datasetsfor studying climate variability and change, along with the formulation of suitable methodologies fortheir analysis. However, there is a tendency within certain disciplines to rely solely on a single sourceof climate data, either for the sake of simplicity or due to its compatibility with desired resolutionor availability requirements. In this context, climatologists express their apprehension regardingthe uncritical utilization of climate databases. It is from this concern that the present article aimsto provide a comprehensive description of the scope and limitations associated with the availabledatabases. Furthermore, the article addresses the issue of uncertainty in climate projections and offers guidance on how to effectively employ climate data in conducting experiments pertaining to speciesdistribution, while considering the inherent uncertainty associated with such data. Emphasis is placedon the significance of conducting multiple experiments utilizing independent climate projections,as well as utilizing statistical tools to draw conclusions based on a range of potential solutions. Byadopting this approach, researchers can more effectively assess the impact of climate change and itsimplications for species distribution patterns.