Using Chaos theory fundamentals for analysing temperature, precipitation variability and trends in Northern Patagonia, Argentina

GARCÍA BU BUCOGEN, GRETHEL; PICCOLO, MARÍA CINTIA; BOHN, VANESA YAEL; HUCK, GABRIEL EDUARDO

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science

CSIRO Publishing

Lugar: Sydney; Año: 2022 vol. 72 p. 179 - 190

2206-5865

The fundamentals of Chaos theory allow the study of climatic conditions and long-term modifications produced by changes in their spatial and temporal scales. The aim of this work is toanalyse the variability and changes produced in the annual cycles of temperature and precipitationin Northern Patagonia, Argentina, applying multifractal analysis as a practical mathematical tool ofChaos theory. Data from the NASA POWER Project (2021) was implemented as an alternativedataset for carrying out climatological studies in the area. Annual mean temperature andprecipitation time-series data (1981–2019) were analysed at 72 grid points with 1° of spatialresolution. The Mann–Kendall test was used to calculate the trends through the annual cycles ofthe meteorological variables. Fractal dimension values were calculated using MultifractalDetrended Fluctuation Analysis. The Hurst exponent, complexity and asymmetry were themultifractal dimensions describing the persistence of time-series trends and climatic variability.The results showed changes in the annual cycles of both variables during the study period. Themost significant finding was a large area in the centre and north of the study area, where thedecrease in the rainfall regime was persistent. The Hurst exponent detected a sector in thePatagonian Andes mountain range where the temperature increase was constant. This workdemonstrates that fractal geometry is useful to describe meteorological variability and obtainbetter short-, medium- and long-term forecasts.