Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina

PROPATO, TAMARA SOFÍA; DE ABELLEYRA, DIEGO; SEMMARTIN, MARÍA; VERÓN, SANTIAGO R.

CLIMATIC CHANGE

SPRINGER

Año: 2021 vol. 166

0165-0009

The description of the relationship between temperature (T) and electricity consumption (EC) is key to improving our understanding of a potential climate change amplification feedback and, thus, energy planning. We sought to characterize the relationship between the EC and daily T of different regions of Argentina and use these historical relationships to estimate expected EC under T future scenarios. We used a time series approach to model EC, removing trends and seasonality and accounting for breaks and discontinuities. EC and T data were obtained from Argentine Wholesale Market Administrator Company and global databases, respectively. We evaluate the T-EC model for the period between 1997 and 2014 and two sub-periods: 1997–2001 and 2011–2014. We use modeled temperature projections for the 2027–2044 period based on the Representative Pathway Concentration 4.5 together with our region-specific T-EC models to predict changes in EC due to T changes. The shape of the T-EC relationships is quite stable between periods and regions but varies according to the temperature gradient. We find large increases in EC in warm days (from 40 to 126 Wh/cap/°C) and a region-specific response to cold days (from flat to steep responses). The T at which EC was at minimum varies between 14 and 20 °C and increase in time as mean daily T also increase. Estimated temperature projections translate into an average increase factor of 7.2 in EC with contrasting relative importance between regions of Argentina. Results highlight potential sensitivity of EC to T in the developing countries.