La Plata Basin Hydroclimate Response to Solar Radiation Modification With Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

CAMILLONI, I.; MONTROULL, N.; GULIZIA, C.; SAURRAL, R.

Frontiers in Climate

Frontiers Media

Año: 2022

This study analyses the La Plata Basin (LPB) hydroclimate response to Solar RadiationModification (SRM) with Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) in terms of changes in meanand extreme temperature, rainfall, and river flows simulations from the GeoengineeringLarge Ensemble (GLENS). The GLENS data used consists of three members simulationsof a single model under the high anthropogenic emission scenario RCP8.5 withand without sulfur injection in the tropical stratosphere. The response of such anintervention is compared to a historical period (1980?2010) and to projections underthe RCP8.5 scenario for two time slices: 2021?2050 and 2051?2080. The analysisof changes in extreme temperature and precipitation focuses on a subset of climateindices from the Expert Team of Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Todetermine the possible effects of SRM in the LPB water cycle, we use the distributedVariable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model in combination with daily extremetemperature and precipitation outputs from GLENS. Systematic errors in both fieldswere corrected by the application of a statistical bias correction method. Results showrobust impacts on the water cycle of the LPB due to SRM implementation, particularlyassociated with increased precipitation over the northern part of the region and a generalreduced warming compared to the RCP8.5 scenario. These variations would lead toregional-dependent responses in the river flows, mostly related to reductions in theseverity of the extremely low flow conditions. Additionally, under the SRM scenario areduction in extreme precipitation and a cooling effect on extreme temperatures couldbe expected over the LPB.