INVESTIGADORES
JOBBAGY GAMPEL Esteban Gabriel
artículos
Título:
Land use change patterns in the Río de la Plata grasslands: the influence of phytogeographic and political boundaries
Autor/es:
VEGA, E; BALDI, G; JOBBAGY, EG; PARUELO, JM
Revista:
AGRICULTURE, ECOSYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
Editorial:
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Referencias:
Año: 2009 vol. 134 p. 287 - 292
ISSN:
0167-8809
Resumen:
The Rý´o de la Plata grasslands (RPG) in South America are one of the largest temperate grasslands regions
of the world. This region plays a key role in international crop production and land use change rates in
some areas are among the highest detected nowadays. Our objective was to characterize the spatial
heterogeneity of land use change dynamics in the RPG and to relate it with biophysical and political
boundaries. Based on Landsat imagery we characterized land use changes at two time periods (1986
1990, 20022005) and we performed a comparison of markovian models and their properties (stable
proportion vector and sensitivity analysis) for each phytogeographic district and country of the region.
Temporal transitions between natural and implanted forests (Fo), crops (Cr), and grasslands (Gr) were
calculated in order to buildmatrix probabilisticmodels. We found that 1.2 106 ha of grassland surface
has been transformed into implanted forests and croplands (6% reduction of grasslands, 60% increase of
afforestations, 3% increase of croplands). Transition probability Cr!Cr displayed the largest spatial
variation, followed by the other three transitions linking croplands and grasslands (Cr!Gr, Gr!Gr,
Gr!Cr). The less variable transition rate among districts was Cr!Fo.
Projections for Argentina and parts of Uruguay suggest that grassland loss would continue in most of
analyzed territory, whereas in Brazil and parts of Uruguay the projected trend was the opposite,
grassland cover would increase. Forested area increment would continue in Uruguay and partially in
Argentina, while in Brazil it would decrease. Considering the whole region, crop area wouldmaintain the
increasing trends. Transition probabilities for the same phytogeographical district (Northern Campos)
differed significantly among the three countries that occupy it, showing the relative importance of
human context driving land use change.106 ha of grassland surface
has been transformed into implanted forests and croplands (6% reduction of grasslands, 60% increase of
afforestations, 3% increase of croplands). Transition probability Cr!Cr displayed the largest spatial
variation, followed by the other three transitions linking croplands and grasslands (Cr!Gr, Gr!Gr,
Gr!Cr). The less variable transition rate among districts was Cr!Fo.
Projections for Argentina and parts of Uruguay suggest that grassland loss would continue in most of
analyzed territory, whereas in Brazil and parts of Uruguay the projected trend was the opposite,
grassland cover would increase. Forested area increment would continue in Uruguay and partially in
Argentina, while in Brazil it would decrease. Considering the whole region, crop area wouldmaintain the
increasing trends. Transition probabilities for the same phytogeographical district (Northern Campos)
differed significantly among the three countries that occupy it, showing the relative importance of
human context driving land use change.!Cr displayed the largest spatial
variation, followed by the other three transitions linking croplands and grasslands (Cr!Gr, Gr!Gr,
Gr!Cr). The less variable transition rate among districts was Cr!Fo.
Projections for Argentina and parts of Uruguay suggest that grassland loss would continue in most of
analyzed territory, whereas in Brazil and parts of Uruguay the projected trend was the opposite,
grassland cover would increase. Forested area increment would continue in Uruguay and partially in
Argentina, while in Brazil it would decrease. Considering the whole region, crop area wouldmaintain the
increasing trends. Transition probabilities for the same phytogeographical district (Northern Campos)
differed significantly among the three countries that occupy it, showing the relative importance of
human context driving land use change.!Gr, Gr!Gr,
Gr!Cr). The less variable transition rate among districts was Cr!Fo.
Projections for Argentina and parts of Uruguay suggest that grassland loss would continue in most of
analyzed territory, whereas in Brazil and parts of Uruguay the projected trend was the opposite,
grassland cover would increase. Forested area increment would continue in Uruguay and partially in
Argentina, while in Brazil it would decrease. Considering the whole region, crop area wouldmaintain the
increasing trends. Transition probabilities for the same phytogeographical district (Northern Campos)
differed significantly among the three countries that occupy it, showing the relative importance of
human context driving land use change.!Cr). The less variable transition rate among districts was Cr!Fo.
Projections for Argentina and parts of Uruguay suggest that grassland loss would continue in most of
analyzed territory, whereas in Brazil and parts of Uruguay the projected trend was the opposite,
grassland cover would increase. Forested area increment would continue in Uruguay and partially in
Argentina, while in Brazil it would decrease. Considering the whole region, crop area wouldmaintain the
increasing trends. Transition probabilities for the same phytogeographical district (Northern Campos)
differed significantly among the three countries that occupy it, showing the relative importance of
human context driving land use change.