Adapting to global environmental change: what role for disturbance ecology?

VEBLEN, TT; A HOLZ; J PARITSIS; E RAFFAELE; T KITZBERGER; M BLACKHALL

Bariloche, RN, Argentina

Congreso; VI Southern Connection Congress; 2010

In the context of climate warming and ecological forecasting, a major research challenge is to determine how disturbance events and their interactions alter ecosystem susceptibility to climate-induced ecological changes. Conceptual frameworks for investigating changes in climate-related disturbance regimes, such as wildfire activity, emphasize the potential of land-use practices to accelerate ecological change and potentially lead to abrupt regime shifts. In the Patagonian-Andean region, land management practices involving livestock management, introduced plant and animal species, and fire management (both ignition and exclusion) potentially alter ecosystem susceptibility to climate-induced changes in wildfire regimes. A combination of land-use practices appears to be contributing to the replacement of relatively firenative forests by more fire prone vegetation. While regional warming and drying trends  are highly likely to increase future wildfire activity in Patagonia, available knowledge derived from studies of disturbance ecology in these ecosystems usefully informs options for adaptation to and mitigation of climate impacts on wildfire potential.