Predicting spatial and temporal effects of climate change on the South American lizard genus Teius (Squamata: Teiidae)

MINOLI, I.; CACCIALI, P.; MORANDO, M.; AVILA, L.J.

AMPHIBIA-REPTILIA

BRILL ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS

Lugar: Leiden; Año: 2018 vol. 39 p. 1 - 14

0173-5373

The consequences of past or future climate change have been studied in many physical and biological systems, andtheir effects could change the ecology and spatial distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms. We analyzedthe environmental and geographic space of the current suitable area projecting these conditions into Mid-Holocene and 2050RCP8.5 scenarios to quantify whether climate change would affect the distribution and size of environmental and geographicspace for lizard species of the genus Teius. The potentially suitable geographic area for the Mid-Holocene was found to besmaller than today for T. oculatus (−29.55%) and for T. teyou (−6.82%), but for T. suquiensis it was inferred as a largersuitable area (+26%). For the future scenario all species showed a decrease in the potentially suitable area compared to thepresent (T. oculatus = − 9.30%, T. teyou = − 0.79%, T. suquiensis = − 37.58%). The PCA axes that in the environmentalspace showed a higher contribution for PC1-2 in Mid-Holocene and Present were mostly related to temperature and for PC3with altitude variables, for the 2050 scenario were temperature for PC1, precipitation for PC2 and altitude-temperature forPC3. The current Teius? potentially suitable geographic space results versus the other temporal forecasts, showed specificdifferences in magnitude changes. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in theirenvironmental and geographic space as a consequence of the effect of climate changes.