Towards more realistic movement models: comparing simulated and observed movement

MORALES, JUAN M.

Fort Collins

Congreso; 2014 Graybill/ENVR Conference Modern Statistical Methods for Ecology; 2014

Computer intensive methods are allowing us to fit increasingly detailed movement models to data. These models usually include the effects of habitat features and even past experiences on movement decisions. However, once the fitted models are simulated (if this is done at all), the trajectories produced by the models rarely look like the observed ones. Here I argue that this problem is mainly due to current models paying too much attention to small-scale features of movement trajectories. A possible way around this issue is for researchers to first define what features of movement they wish to capture and then use posterior predictive checks on such features to assess model performance. Alternatively, Approximate Bayesian Computation based on selected movement features can be used from the outset. I will illustrate these ideas highlighting their potential, challenges and limitations.