A novel fire regime driven by increased lightning activity and lightning ignition efficiency for northwestern Patagonia, Argentina

KITZBERGER, THOMAS; BÜRGESSER, RODRIGO E.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE

CSIRO PUBLISHING

Año: 2025 vol. 34

1049-8001

BackgroundNorthwestern Patagonia, Argentina, has in recent decades experienced large lightning-ignited wildfires that suggests ongoing changes into a novel fire regime.AimsThis study investigates spatial and temporal patterns, drivers and trends in lightning and lightning storm incidence and lightning ignition efficiency.MethodsWe spatially/temporally matched 10 years of lightning stroke data, historical fire records and atmospheric reanalysis datasets.Key resultsAndean forests had the highest incidence of dry lightning and highest ignition efficiency. Incidence of large lightning storms was associated with high atmospheric convective activity, related to an enhanced south reaching South American Low-Level Jet. Lightning ignitions were largely controlled by antecedent fire weather represented by threshold values of Fire Weather Index. Positive multidecadal trends in atmospheric instability and frequency of extreme fire weather relate to the observed 18-fold increase in lightning-caused fires, accounting for nearly 50% of the area burned in the last decade.ConclusionsMore frequent lightning-ignited wildfires results from both increased monsoonal influence inducing atmospheric instability and warming-drying trends that impact on fuel conditions.ImplicationsContinued warming, combined with increasing lightning activity, suggest a growing role for lightning-ignited wildfires in shaping regional fire regimes, thus posing new challenges to fire managers and the society.