Ecological niche modeling and molecular markers elucidate landscape patterns in montane subtropical Podocarpus

MARIA PAULA QUIROGA, SILVIA PACHECO , LUCIO MALIZIA, ANDREA PREMOLI

Concepción

Congreso; IUFRO Landscape ecology Conference. Sustaining humans and forests in changing landscapes: Forests, society and global change; 2012

Phylogeography in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) and fragmentation analysis is a robust tool to analyze hypotheses on range shifts under changing climates particularly of taxa and areas with scant fossil records. We combined phylogeographic analysis and ENM techniques to study the effects of alternate cold and warm (i.e. glacial and interglacial) periods on the subtropical montane cold-tolerant conifer Podocarpus parlatorei from Yungas forests of the central Andes. Twenty-one populations, comprising 208 individuals, were analyzed by sequences of the trnL-trnFcpDNA region and 78 sites were included in the ENM. Eight haplotypes were detected, most of which were widespread while three of them were exclusive of latitudinally marginal areas. Haplotype diversity was mostly even throughout the latitudinal range. Two distribution models, based on eight bioclimatic variables, indicate a rather continuous distribution during cooling, while under warming, remained within stable, yet increasingly fragmented, areas. As in the case of P. parlatorei, cold tolerant taxa from subtropical mountains have probably survived the glacial eras locally in the same, or nearby, areas that it currently occupies without major latitudinal movements. This is consistent with widely distributed haplotypes that suggest local expansion-retraction from long-lasting core areas through time. Although no major range shifts are expected with warming, long lasting persistence of cold-hardy taxa inhabiting subtropical mountains may include in situ and ex situ conservation actions particularly towards southern (colder) areas.