Can landscape structure increase the resilience of pollination services in face of climate change?

BOSCOLO, DANILO; FREITAS MOREIRA, E; TOURINHO DE OLIVEIRA PEREIRA, L; GARIBALDI, LUCAS A.; FELIPE VIANA, BLANDINA

Congreso; 2023 IALE World Congress; 2023

Pollination is fundamental for agriculture and biodiversity, but the homogenisation ofintensely explored landscapes is among the leading causes of pollinator declines.Decreased agricultural productivity due to pollination deficit may force farmers to increasecrop areas, generating pollinators-productivity loss feedback cycles. Climate change mayaccentuate these landscape change effects, aggravating the current pollination servicescrisis. To cope with this, we need to understand if the future distribution of pollinatorcommunities will match the exact locations where their native habitats will be available toguarantee services provision. We used MaxEnt niche models for 172 South American beeswith more than 1000 registries (GBIF and SpeciesLink) using the historical and projectedWorldClim bioclimatic variables standardised according to the IPCC Shared SocioeconomicPathways (SSP1-3 and 5). Continuous occurrence probabilities were taken as proxies ofclimate suitability and bee diversity. To get future relative changes, we subtracted the currentfrom the future bee diversity estimates. These changes were correlated to future landscapestructure estimated from the Land Use Harmonization 2 layer. Our results show that climatechange may negatively affect bee diversity, especially in the highest emissions and globalwarming scenarios (SSP3 and 5). Most Latin America (>50%) may experience bee diversityloss between 30 and 60%, reaching up to 80% in the worst-case scenarios. But thelandscape structure may play a role in buffering climate change effects for >60% of LatinAmerica, showing that proper landscape planning is crucial to mitigate bee diversity andpollination services losses in the global south.