Predicting extinction risk by Climate Change for the high-Andean lizard Phymaturus palluma

VICENZI, N; SINERVO, B; CORBALÁN, V.; IBARGÜENGOYTÍA, N.; MILES, D

Hangzhou

Congreso; The 8th World Congress of Herpetology; 2016

An increase in temperatures and frequency of drought events are predicted in the High Andes due to climate change. Species could respond with changes in its range, abundance and phenology. We developed an Eco-physiological model to assess and predict the vulnerability of the endemic lizard, Phymaturus palluma, of the Central Andes to climate change. To create the Species Distribution Model (SDM), we linked thermal physiological variables of the species with climatic variables obtained from a set of high-resolution regional climate simulations. According our results, the model predicts a substantial reduction in the available habitat over the species current distributional range. The model also predicts new potential distribution areas toward the West Andes at higher elevation. However, as P. palluma is characterized by specialized habits and low dispersal capability we suggest the likelihood of a range expansion to these new sites is marginal. Thus, range shifts are unlikely to prevent extinction. Conservation strategies should be focused in the protection of the current distribution areas that remain climate suitable in the different future projections.