INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE NIVOLOGIA, GLACIOLOGIA Y CIENCIAS AMBIENTALES
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
El Niño modulations during the past seven centuries
JINBAO LI; SHANG-PING XIE; EDWARD R. COOK ; MARIANO S. MORALES; DUNCAN A. CHRISTIE; NATHANIEL C. JOHNSON; FAHU CHEN; ROSANNE D?ARRIGO; ANTHONY M. FOWLER; XIAOHUA GOU; KEYAN FANG
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Nature Publishing Group
Lugar: Londres; Año: 2013 p. 822 - 826
Predicting how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change with global warming is of enormous importance to society. ENSO exhibits considerable natural variability at interdecadal?centennial timescales. Instrumental records are too short to determine whether ENSO has changed and existing reconstructions are often developed without adequate tropical records. Here we present a seven-century-long ENSO reconstruction based on 2,222 tree-ring chronologies from both the tropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. The inclusion of tropical records enables us to achieve unprecedented accuracy, as attested by high Correlations with equatorial Pacific corals7,8 and coherent modulation of global teleconnections that are consistent with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Our data indicate that ENSO activity in the late twentieth century was anomalously high over the past seven centuries, suggestive of a response to ongoing global warming. Climate models disagree on the ENSO response to global warming suggesting that many models underestimate the sensitivity to radiative per turbations. Illustrating the radiative effect, our reconstruction reveals a robust ENSO response to large tropical eruptions, with anomalous cooling in the east-central tropical Pacific in the year of eruption, followed by anomalous warming one year after. Our observations provide crucial constraints for improving climate models and their future projections.