Assessing the conservation of a vulnerable felid species: threats from current human land use and future climate change on kodkod (Leopardus guigna)

CUYCKENS, GIET AN ERICA; MORALES, MIRIAM MARIANA; TOGNELLI, MARCELO F.

ORYX

CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS

Lugar: Cambridge; Año: 2013 vol. 49 p. 611 - 618

0030-6053

Climate change and habitat fragmentation are considered key pressures on biodiversity. Particularly vulnerable are mammal carnivores with small geographic distributions. Kodkod (Leopardus guigna), is a small felid endemic to the temperate forests of southern Chile and Argentina and has the smallest geographic range of any of the New World felids. Although field studies on this species have been increasing in the past decades, its distribution is not yet fully understood. Protected areas exist where the species occurs in both countries, though it is not known how well they protect the kodkod at present or under a climate change scenario. In this study, we use species distribution models and spatial analyses to assess the distribution of kodkod, including changes in human land use and future climate change. We also assess the species? current representation in protected areas and in light of a climate change scenario. Our study shows that kodkod has already suffered range loss due to human land use (5.5%), particularly in core areas with intermediate habitat suitability. Climate change, together with human land use, will affect 40% of kodkod`s present potential distribution by the year 2050. Currently, 12.5% of the species` potential distribution is represented in protected areas and, it will be represented by 14% in the future; a larger relative proportion will be protected in Argentina than in Chile. But, the species is more prone to get extinct in Argentina and Chilean Matorral.