INVESTIGADORES
LUCINI Maria magdalena
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Interannual variability of cyclone trajectories in South America using
probabilistic clustering techniques
Autor/es:
DECHAT, DIEGO; PULIDO, MANUEL ARTURO; LUCINI, MARÍA MAGDALENA
Reunión:
Conferencia; American Geophysical Union 2010: The meeting of the Americas; 2010
Institución organizadora:
AGU
Resumen:
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Techniques
for the statistical classification of cyclone trajectories and
cyclone genesis are developed and applied in the Ocean Pacific of the
Southern Hemisphere. The cyclone trajectories are the result of an
automatic technique for the detection and tracking of features in
observed fields which are applied to the geopotential and the mean
sea level pressure fields from ERA 40 reanalysis data and NCEP
analysis. The trajectories are optimally classified using mixture of
polinomialcurves, the method determines the common
spatio-temporal characterist of the trajectories classifying them in
clusters. The genesis points are clustered using bidimensional
Gaussian mixtures. The interannual variability of the cyclone
trajectories and genesis is examined. Thesensitivity of the
trajectories and the genesis points to the tropical SST forcing is
evaluated for different years which are selected in different groups
depending on ENSO index. The aim of this analysis is to show if it is
possible to verify the processes suggested by Orlanski (2005) on the
cyclone trajectory sensitivity to the tropical SSTs. The results show
that the mean curves representing the trajectory clusters do not show
a statistically significant sensitiviy to large-scale forcings.