IEE   25093
INSTITUTO DE ENERGIA ELECTRICA
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Evaluación Estocástica de Plantas de Generación de Energía Eléctrica en Ciclo Abierto y Ciclo Cerrado
Autor/es:
MOMBELLO, B.; PRINGLES, R.; OLSINA, F.
Lugar:
Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires
Reunión:
Congreso; 12th Latin-American Congress on Electricity Generation and Transmission; 2017
Institución organizadora:
Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata
Resumen:
Additions of power generation capacity usually commit significant amounts of capital resources. In the long-term, returns of power investments are vulnerable to the occurrence of unfavorable market conditions. Volatility of electricity and fuel prices, transmission constraints and technical unavailability of the own installations introduce significant uncertainty on the financial performance of the investment generation project actual. Decisions on capital investments are typically based on deterministic profitability metrics such the project?s net present value (NPV) and/or the internal rate of return (IRR). Nevertheless, because of the uncertain factors realized returns may dramatically differ from projections at time of decision. In fact, some unanticipated adverse scenarios can even endanger the survival of the generating firms. For this reason, generation companies consider not only profitability expectations, but also the involved risks. The objective of this article is to demonstrate the feasibility of applying stochastic simulation for appraising generation investment projects under consideration of exogenous and endogenous project uncertainty and its associated risks. A gas-fired open cycle and a combined cycle power plant are used as exemplary investment projects. Expected profitability and risk metrics, such as VaR (Value-at-Risk) and loss probability, are derived from these distributions. Sensitivity analysis of return and risk metrics upon some driving variables is performed.