A simulative model for short term hydrothermal scheduling considering hydrological uncertainty and forced outage of generation and transmission equipment

LÓPEZ SALGADO, CARLOS JOSUE; AÑÓ, OSVALDO; OJEDA ESTEYBAR, DIEGO MAURICIO

São José dos Campos

Congreso; The XI Latin-American Congress on Electricity Generation and Transmission - CLAGTEE 2015; 2015

São Paulo State University - National University of Mar del Plata - Pontificial Catholic University of Valparaiso

Optimal management of hydrothermal systems suggests a reassessment of hydroelectric power, due to its low cost, its regulation capability and its contribution to reliability, among others. For the short-term planning horizon, hydrothermal scheduling is currently performed using deterministic or simplified probabilistic inflow models, and assuming that generating units and transmission lines remain in the pre-contingency state during the entire period. Within this context, this paper proposes an optimization strategy that obtains expected water value functions of controllable reservoirs taking into account the random outage of power plants and transmission lines, and the stochastic nature of inflows. These functions can be applied afterwards in the optimal schedule of a daily dispatch. The proposed methodology relies on the dual dynamic programming algorithm in the approximation of future cost functions, and in Monte Carlo simulation to model contingencies and realization of hydrologic scenarios. The strategy is tested in an illustrative example and results confirm the suitability of the developed approach.