Can scenario-planning support community based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

WAYLEN, KERRY; MARTÍN-ORTEGA, JUALIA; BLACKSTOCK, KIRSTY; BROWN, IAIN; AVENDAÑO URIBE, BRYAN; BASURTO HERNANDEZ, SAÚL; BERTONI, MARÍA BELÉN; BUSTOS, MARÍA LUJÁN; CRUZ BAYER, ALEJANDRA; ESCALANTE SEMERENA, ROBERTO; FARAH QUIJANO, MARÍA ADELAIDA; FERRELLI, FEDERICO; FIDALGO, GUILLERMO; HERNANDEZ LÓPEZ, ISRAEL; HUAMANTINCO CISNEROS, MARÍA ANDREA; LONDON, SILVIA; MAYA VELEZ, DIANA; OCAMPO-DÍAZ, NATALIA; ORTÍZ-GUERRERO, CÉSAR; PASCALE, JUAN; PERILLO, GERARDO; PICCOLO, MARÍA CINTIA; PINZÓN MARTÍNEZ, LINA; ROJAS, MARA; SCORDO, FACUNDO; VITALE, VALERIA; ZILIO, MARIANA

ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY

RESILIENCE ALLIANCE

Año: 2015

1708-3087

Community Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) is a concept critical to managing socio-ecological systems, but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario-planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM, but whose potential is not yet well understood. We therefore designed, trialled and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM at three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico and Argentina. Implementing scenario-planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it could be challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge; enhanced consideration and adaption of future change; and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arise is challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularlyuseful. Firstly, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local socio-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues.Secondly, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities (´response options´) that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors (e.g. policy groups): this raises the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario-planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process.We suggest other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario-planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored since further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, and their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.