The validity of the HCR-20 and PCL:SV Spanish version in predicting violence in a civil psychiatric sample.

ARBACH, K.; ANDRÉS-PUEYO, A.

Athens

Congreso; 26 th International Congress of Applied Psychology; 2006

Abstract The accuracy of psychologists to predict violent behaviour in mentally disordered people has been extensively debated from 70´s. The initial pessimism about clinical prediction was overcome in 90`s when actuarial methods and structured clinical judgment instruments to predict violence in risk groups began to be designed and spread from North America. The Historical, Clinical and Risk Management-20 Scale (HCR-20) and Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) are tools with tested predictive validity in this continent. The purpose of the study is to explore the predictive validity of HCR-20 and PCL:SV Spanish version in civil psychiatric population. A one year follow up study is made in a sample of 104 chronic and subacute patients. The outcome variable is recorded with a Spanish translation of the Modified Overt Aggression Scale.Preliminary results:  Thirty-five (33%) of the sample were involved in at least one violent incident in the first 4 months after the assessment. In a retrospective analysis fourteen of twenty items of the HCR-20 significantly differentiated between violent and non violent patient groups. A global estimation of high or moderate risk in the HCR-20 increased 10,52 times the probability of presenting physical violence against objects or people in the 4 months follow-up.