A PRE-OPERATIVE FORECAST SYSTEM FOR THE MIGHTY RIO DE LA PLATA ESTUARY

MATIAS G DINAPOLI; CLAUDIA SIMIONATO; DIEGO MOREIRA

Qingdao

Workshop; GC Sea Level/CLIVAR-FIO Summer School Past, Present and Future Sea Level Changes; 2018

The First Institute of Oceanography (FIO), State Oceanic Administration (SOA)

The mighty Río de la Plata estuary is affected by extreme storm surges generated by strong and persistent south-easterly winds called?Sudestadas?, which produce floods in densely populated coastal areas of Argentina. Here is presented a regionalization of 2Dbarotropic application of CROCO ocean model for the forecast of sea surface height during a Sudestada event. From a sensitivityanalysis was concluded that by far wind speed it is the most important parameter for the forecast, producing an uncertain up to 50% ofsea surface height. A study of nonlinear inside of estuary yielded the tide and the storm surge signals explain the 95% of the total seasurface height, and their interaction explains other 4%.