External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: A cointegration analysis with breaks
FERNANDO DELBIANCO; ANDRÉS FIORITI
Lecturas de Economía
Universidad de Antioquia
Lugar: Antioquia; Año: 2018 vol. 88 p. 9 - 9
In this paper we seek to characterize the relationship on the cyclical behavior of the foreign accounts and commodity price indexes of the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. Using several tests of stationarity that allow for the presence of breaks we conclude that commodity prices are cointegrated with the current accounts of the countries of Latin America, suggesting that developmentalism plans did not obtain the desired diversification and the region still relies heavily on commodities to determine it foreign position. Another important result supports the results of Delbianco and Fioriti (2014, 2015) that the region had suffered two sudden stops in the last 60 years, both driven by commodity prices shifts.