Ecological Niche and Potential Geographic Distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Northeast Argentina

MARTÍN, MÍA ELISA; STEIN, MARINA; SANGERMANO, FLORENCIA; ESTALLO, ELIZABET LILIA

EcoHealth

springer

Año: 2025

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are the primary vectors of arboviruses in Argentina, withincreasing importance in Northeastern Argentina (NEA). This study used ecological niche modeling (MaxEnt)to estimate the potential geographic distribution of both species in NEA, integrating bioclimatic, land cover,and sociodemographic variables such as population density and urban accessibility. Occurrence data werecompiled from global databases and literature, and model calibration was based on variable selection, spatialfiltering, and cross-validation. Results indicate a broader potential distribution for Ae. albopictus compared toAe. aegypti, particularly in under-sampled areas of Misiones and Corrientes. Urban accessibility emerged as themost influential predictor for both species, with models combining environmental and sociodemographicvariables outperforming climate-only models (AUC > 0.84). Binary habitat suitability maps showed markeddifferences between models, underscoring the importance of human-driven factors. These findings support theuse of integrative modeling approaches to better anticipate vector expansion and prioritize surveillance. Thestudy provides critical information to guide vector control programs and reduce the risk of arbovirus transmission, especially in densely populated and highly connected areas.