Assessment of climate change on shallow lakes, Buenos Aires- Argentine.

CAROLINE TENGROTH M.; ALEJANDRA GERALDI

Investigaciones Geograficas

Universidad de Alicante

Lugar: ALICANTE; Año: 2021 p. 1 - 17

1989-9890

A climate change poses many risks to humans and to the global ecosystem. Changes likely to occur in the future are higher temperatures and an increased number of temperature extremes. There will also be a change in precipitation, with both increases and decreases in different parts of the world. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact that climate change will produce in aquatic ecosystems of medium and shallow depth in plain areas. It work with HadCM3; ECHAM4/OPYC, NCAR-CSM and GFDL.3.1. models and data from the local weather station. A multiple regression analysis was performed and 5 models and the shallow lake area were compared. The water levels in the shallow lake will continue to fluctuate in the future as precipitation and temperature varies. Temperatures will increase fast in the area; around 3 ºC change is expected until 2099. Only small variations in the temperatures have before caused shallow lake areas to change. Precipitation patterns show a high variation, but the change is very small. Minimum temperature, which is already the most significant factor according to the statistical analysis, will in the future be an even stronger factor if changes occur.