Processes affecting Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) infestation and abundance: inference through statistical modeling and risk maps in Northern Argentina.

GARELLI FM; ESPINOZA M; GURTLER RE

JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY

ENTOMOLOGICAL SOC AMER

Lugar: Lanham; Año: 2012 p. 722 - 730

0022-2585

ABSTRACT Understanding the processes that affect Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) mayserve as a starting point to create and/or improve vector control strategies. For this purpose, weperformed statistical modeling of three entomological surveys conducted in Clorinda City, northernArgentina. Previous ÔbasicÕ models of presence or absence of larvae and/or pupae (infestation) andthe number of pupae in infested containers (productivity), mainly based on physical characteristicsof containers, were expanded to include variables selected a priori reßecting water use practices,vector-related context factors, the history of chemical control, and climate. Model selection wasperformed using AkaikeÕs Information Criterion. In total, 5,431 water-holding containers were inspectedand 12,369 Ae. aegypti pupae collected from 963 positive containers. Large tanks were the mostproductive container type. Variables reßecting every putative process considered, except for historyof chemical control, were selected in the best models obtained for infestation and productivity. Theassociations found were very strong, particularly in the case of infestation. Water use practices andvector-related context factors were the most important ones, as evidenced by their impact on AkaikeÕsInformation Criterion scores of the infestation model. Risk maps based on empirical data and modelpredictions showed a heterogeneous distribution of entomological risk. An integrated vector controlstrategy is recommended, aiming at community participation for healthier water use practices andtargeting large tanks for key elements such as lid status, water addition frequency and water use.