ZILIO Mariana Ines
Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America
WAYLEN, K. A.; MARTÍN-ORTEGA, J.; BLACKSTOCK, K.; BROWN, I.; AVENDAÑO URIBE, A.; BASURTO HERNÁNDEZ, S.; BERTONI, M. B.; BUSTOS, M. L.; XÓCHITL CRUZ BAYER, A.; ESCALANTE SEMERENA, R.; FARAH QUIJANO, M. A.; FERRELI, F.; FIDALGO, G. L.; HERNÁNDEZ LÓPEZ, I.; HUAMANTINCO CISNEROS, A.; LONDON, S.; MAYA VÉLEZ, D.; OCAMPO DÍAZ, N.; ORTIZ GUERRERO, C.; PASCALE, J. C.; PERILLO, G. M. E.; PICCOLO, M. C.; PINZÓN MARTÍNEZ, L. ; ROJAS, M. ; SCORDO, F.; VITALE, V.; ZILIO, M.
ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY
Año: 2015 vol. 20
Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systemsbut whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM butwhose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended tosupport CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhilein all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM:encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change,and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but twoelements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect localsocial-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on howto use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or ?response options,? that would support CBNRM despitethe pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policygroups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning,so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adaptingand applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required tounderstand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus othermethods.