Scenarios of Discontent in Latin America: Polarization, Generalized Unrest and Divisive Leaderships

GABRIEL KESSLER; GABRIEL VOMMARO

Bogotá

Congreso; LASA Congress; 2024

LASA

After an upward economic cycle during which social indicators improved in almost the entire region, Latin America is experiencing a period of growing social and political discontent and conflict. Interruptions in social progress have fueled citizens' frustrations. However, the conflicts over these demands have varied from country to country. In line with studies on social movements and collective action, we argue that, among other fundamental points, the structure of a conflict is linked to the defined target of the protests (Walker, Martin & McCarthy, 2008; Wood, 2004), assuming that they always have some anti-incumbent component, they can be treated as representatives of an out-group or as a homogeneous political class ("la casta", "los mismos de siempre", etc.). In the first case, protests express a sense that the government or its institutions are engaged in aggression, are considered hostile, and represent an adversarial group or identity. Discontent is horizontal and often associated with a negative political identity that interprets social problems as the responsibility of the actor targeted by this rejection: Peronism, Petismo, etc. (Samuels & Zucco, 2018; Meléndez, 2022). In the second case, protests are directed against political elites that are perceived as more or less homogeneous and as a problem for society as a whole. Here, discontent is vertical and interpreted as society versus the political class (Kessler et al., 2024). There is also a scenario in which the center of conflict is fixed on an emerging leader who fuels political sentiments of cohesion and rejection, and who in his discourse directs discontent toward the dominant political elites, treated as part of the past even before his political emergence (Meléndez-Sánchez, 2021).Given the different targets of these protests and discontents, we argue that current political conflict in Latin America can be summarized in three types of scenarios: ideological polarization with affective components, polarization around an emerging leader, and generalized discontent. These three scenarios are ideal types, i.e. they are not found in a pure state in reality. They are also dynamic and do not follow a predetermined sequence. On the contrary, it is possible to move from one situation to another with a certain fluidity. Moreover, there are hybrid situations, such as Peru or Chile, where the conflict at the level of societies has components of the different types of scenarios. Taken together, these three types tell us about the ways in which Latin American societies process and organize their conflicts and demands.