Risk analysis of technological hazards: simulation of scenarios and application of a local vulnerability index

E.Y.SANCHEZ; S.REPRESA; D.MELLADO; K.BALBI; A.AQUESTA; J.E. COLMAN LERNER; A.A.PORTA

JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS.

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Lugar: Amsterdam; Año: 2018

0304-3894

The potential impact of a technological accident can beassessed by risk estimation. Taking this into account, the latent orpotential condition can be warned and mitigated. In this work we proposea methodology to estimate risk of technological hazards, focused on twocomponents. The first one is the processing of meteorological databasesto define the most probably and conservative scenario of study, and thesecond one, is the application of a local social vulnerability index toclassify the population. In this case of study, the risk was estimatedfor a hypothetical release of liquefied ammonia in a meat-packingindustry in the city of La Plata, Argentina. The method consists inintegrating the simulated toxic threat zone with ALOHA software, and thelayer of sociodemographic classification of the affected population. Theresults show the areas associated with higher risks of exposure toammonia, which are worth being addressed for the prevention of disastersin the region. Advantageously, this systemic approach is methodologicallyflexible as it provides the possibility of being applied in variousscenarios based on the available information of both, the exposedpopulation and its meteorology. Furthermore, this methodology optimizesthe processing of the input data and its calculation.