INVESTIGADORES
NEGRI Pablo Augusto
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
From International to Regional Commodity Price Pass-through Using Self-Driven Recurrent Networks
Autor/es:
NEGRI, PABLO; BREITKOPF, MARTIN; OJEDA, MARIA LAURA; RAMOS, MARIA PRISCILA
Lugar:
Buenos Aires
Reunión:
Congreso; LVI Reunión Anual Asociación Argentina de Economía Política; 2021
Institución organizadora:
Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política (UBA-CONICET)
Resumen:
The high volatility of the agricultural and energy commodityprices in the international market is a concern due to their transmissionto regional prices, increasing instability in domestic markets. This paperevaluates the performance of recurrent networks (RNN and LSTM) topredict regional prices reactions under international shock simulations.Experiments are run to soybean and corn regional prices in Argentinaby considering exogenous changes of the international oil price - bothagricultural commodities are inputs for biofuels´ production - and also oftheir international prices. Results are in line with the econometric liter-ature and consistent with the dynamic of regional prices in Argentina´smarkets. Thus, the RNNs could be a useful tool for timely economicpolicy decisions that cushion external price shocks in domestic markets.
