INVESTIGADORES
APARICIO Juan Pablo
artículos
Título:
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF TUBERCULOSIS EPIDEMICS
Autor/es:
JUAN PABLO APARICIO, CARLOS CASTILLO-CHAVEZ
Revista:
MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
Editorial:
American Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Referencias:
Año: 2009 vol. 6 p. 209 - 237
ISSN:
1547-1063
Resumen:
Abstract. The strengths and limitations of using homogeneous mixing and
heterogeneous mixing epidemic models are explored in the context of the trans-
mission dynamics of tuberculosis. The focus is on three types of models: a
standard incidence homogeneous mixing model, a non-homogeneous mixing
model that incorporates household contacts, and an age-structured model.
The models are parameterized using demographic and epidemiological data
and the patterns generated from these models are compared. Furthermore,
the effects of population growth, stochasticity, clustering of contacts, and age
structure on disease dynamics are explored. This framework is used to asses the
possible causes for the observed historical decline of tuberculosis notifications.