Modeling distribution of invasive tree species in relation to climate and land use change along Neotropical landscapes

L. MONTTI; H.R. GRAU; L. PAOLINI; M. AYUP; A. MALIZIA; V. ZAMORA

Braganca Portugal

Conferencia; IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference.; 2010

The Yungas montane forests of NW Argentina are a diverse ecosystem that plays a key role in protecting water resources for millions of people living in the fertile foothills. In this region precipitation has increased in association to global climate change, and extensive grazing has decreased as a consequence of socioeconomic changes. Both factors promoted forest recovery. However, an increasing proportion of these secondary forests are dominated by Ligustrum lucidum, an exotic tree species, making new forests ecologically different from the original ones. Current trends in climate and land use suggest that Ligustrum forests may cover tens of thousands of hectares in the coming decades. This study developed predictive distribution models of Ligustrum in response to climate and land use changes along Yungas based on MAXENT and GARP niche models; and compared successional trends and animal communities in Ligustrum and native-dominated secondary forests. The results will help to explain to predict “invasive” behaviour of Ligustrum and its potential effects on the ecological servies (carbon sequestration, biodiversity protection, watershed conservation) of these mountain ecosystems.