Land Use Change in Agricultural Systems: Integrating Human Decisions and Cropping System Performance using a DEVS-based Cellular Automata Model

DANIELA BLANCO; DIEGO FERRARO; RODRIGO CASTRO

Baltimore

Conferencia; The International Society for Ecological Modelling Global Conference 2016; 2016

The International Society for Ecological Modelling

The need to increase food supply is one of the main driving forces for cropping systems expansion into previously unused land, and for increasing agricultural productivity. Both effects relate to Land-Use and Cover Change (LUCC) processes mainly characterized by an expansion into areas of greater ecological fragility and increased use of fossil fuel energy inputs. These changes are particularly significant in emerging economies where land availability for agricultural expansion is relatively higher and the external-input level is relatively lower than in developed countries. However, the development of LUCC simulation models is still incipient in agricultural ecosystems, and their potential impact on the environment underrated.We present an Agent-Based Model (ABM) inspired by the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) analytical framework, and implemented with Cell-DEVS, a cellular automata formalism based on the Discrete Event Systems Specification (DEVS) modelling and simulation framework.Our model is structured using coupled rules and functions representing a) crop yields, b) climate, c) profit margins, d) farmers preferences, e) new technologies adoption and f) natural resources consumption based on emergy accounting. The simulation outputs a lattice of agents representing LUCC temporal patterns, with final states expressing performance indexes in terms of a) profit margin, b) land use, and c) intensity of fossil energy use, both at individual (agent) and collective (landscape) levels.First exploratory analyses showed LUCC patterns quickly converging towards the most profitable crop sequences as well as a potential trade-off between profit margin and system renewability, when parameterizing the model according to four locations of the Pampean region (Argentina). The specification of an unambiguous Cell-DEVS theoretical model, along with the implementation of a practical experimentation interface resulted in a very effective tool for simulating LUCC scenarios, integrating human and environmental aspects that are seldom combined together in a same analytical and practical framework