Aprendizaje experiencial aplicado a inversiones de generación de energía eléctrica

BAUM, G.; LÓPEZ, S.; OLSINA, F.; GARCÉS, F.; BLANCO, G.

Mar del Plata

Congreso; 12th Latin-American Congress on Electricity Generation and Transmission CLAGTEE 2017; 2017

CLAGTEE

Abstract?In the liberalized markets, generation companies evaluate investment alternatives considering high committed capital, risk and profitability expectations. These expectations are difficult to anticipate because they depend on several factors that are highly uncertain, including both exogenous uncertainties -such as variations in demand and endogenous uncertainties -such as the behavior of competing generating agents. This paper proposes a methodology that adapts and clarifies the long-term data through a novel technique of experiential learning. This methodology is based on the Agent-based Computational Economics approach and similarity techniques. The results indicate a reduction of the extreme values of the profitability expectations of the alternatives Therefore, this implies a considerable reduction of the risk exposure of the investment alternatives.