The Use of Species Distribution Models for Improving Jaguar Conservation

KATIA FERRAZ; RONALDO MORATO; AGUSTÍN PAVIOLO; CARLOS DANIEL DE ANGELO; ROGERIO DE PAULA; CLAUDIA CAMPOS; FRANCESCA PALMEIRA; BEATRIZ BEISIEGEL

Honolulu

Congreso; 52nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation; 2015

Association for Tropical Biology and Conservation

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to set decisions and priorities in conservation. In Brazil, SDMs have been used as part of the National Action Plans for Endangered Carnivores since 2009, improving conservation efforts and setting priorities in decision making. Jaguar modelling is one of the best examples of how SDMs can help improving conservation decisions. We aimed to use SDMs for evaluating the suitability of actual landscape for jaguar, indicate corridors and priority areas for conservation. Recent presence-only records (camera traps, GPS locations, sighting, feces, tracks, captures) were provided by collaborators (2179 for Atlantic Forest, 553 for Amazonia and 62 for Caatinga). Environmental variables (bioclimatic, topographic, landscape, anthropogenic) were obtained and included as predictors in models. Models were generated by Maxent entropy algorithm. All models presented high predictive success and were highly statistically significant. SDMs revealed the critical situation of the biomes for jaguar as only ~15% of the Atlantic Forest and ~18% of the Caatinga is suitable for the species. For Amazon suitable areas encompassed 80% of the biome. The low landscape suitability for jaguar in the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga reflects the severe threats of unsustainable land use such as unplanned expansion of croplands, cities and cattle ranching. Medium-to-high suitable areas with confirmed jaguar presence were selected as Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and indicated as priority areas for the species conservation. Corridors linking the JCUs have been proposed for being considered by stakeholders in conservation planning, improving the suitability of the landscape and reducing the major threats for jaguar occurrence and maintenance. Considering the dramatic jaguar populationdecline, in these two biomes, it is urgent to move from theory to practice in a modelling framework, bridging the gap between researchers, modellers and decision makers.