Losing the apex predator: an evaluation of the jaguar population of the Atlantic Forest of South America

PAVIOLO, A.; FERRAZ, K.; DE ANGELO, C.; MORATO, R.; SBERK, A.; LIMA, F.; BEISEGEL, B.; VELAZQUEZ, M.; XAVIER DA SILVA, M.; SANA, D.; CULLEN JR., L.; CRAWSHAW JR., P. G.; CUNHA DE PAULA, R.; JORGE, M. L.; MARTINEZ PARDO, J.; GALETTI, P.; DI BITETTI, M. S.; ANDIARA, X.; CRUZ. P.; PERRILLI, M.; QUIROGA, V.; NAKANO, E.; RAMIREZ, F.; FERNANDEZ, S.; COSTA, S.; AIDE, T. M.; AMORIM, E.; EIZIRIK, E.; ENDO, W.; AZEVEDO, F.; VERCILIO, U.

Montpelier

Congreso; 27th International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB); 4th European Congress for Conservation Biology (ECCB); 2015

Society for Conservation Biology

The Atlantic Forest (AF), a global biodiversity hotspot, in eastern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina has lost >90 of its forests. This has resulted in extreme habitat loss of the apex predator, Panthera onca. In an international effort, we combined data from 29 camera trap surveys, along with land change data to evaluate the s jaguar population status in AF and proposed a spatial prioritization for conservation actions. Specifically, we used the area occupied by the species and density estimates to calculate jaguar population size as input into Maxent to classify jaguar habitat into Jaguar Conservation Units (JCU) or other categories based on the size of the habitat fragment, presence of males and females, and population size. Finally, we developed a least-cost-corridor analysis to determine the best options for corridors among the JCUs. Our analyses show that 85% of the original habitat has been lost, 8% is marginal, and only 7% of the original distribution of AF is suitable for the species; however, the species is present only in 2.8% of the region and potentially present in another 1.2%. Furthermore, the densities in areas where the jaguar occurs were low and varied from 0.62-2.41 ind/100km2. Based on these data we estimate the jaguar population of AF to be between 130 and 270 individuals. We identified seven JCU and seven potential JCU in AF, but only three can sustain a population size of 50 individuals. Although some JCU could be connect by corridors, a corridor between X and Y is the most feasible and could have the greatest impact. Clearly, habitat lost has been the major driver of population decline but, currently, poaching and road kills seem to be the main threats for the remaining populations The species is under high risk if urgent measures are not taken. The disappearance of this top predator and its ecological role will have unpredictable consequences for this biodiversity hotspot.