CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Dengue fever is a viral disease transmitted by the mosquito species Aedes aegypti. Dengue is endemic to many tropical and subtropical regions of the world; however, outbreaks have been occurring in more temperate regions in the last two decades. This emergence of dengue in previously naive populations has been driven by a number of factors including the expansion of the distribution of Ae. aegypti, and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. In particular, temperature and precipitation are known to impact various parts of the dengue transmission cycle, including mosquito development and survival and the incubation period of the virus in the mosquito host, and it is likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns have contributed to changes in dengue transmission dynamics. We developed an ordinary differential equations model that expands on the classic vector-host epidemiological models to include time-varying impacts of temperature and precipitation by modeling the impacts of these meteorological phenomena on mosquito development, survival, and virus transmission efficacy. With this model, we explore the relationships between changes in meteorological conditions and Ae.aegypti populations and recent outbreaks of dengue in C´ordoba, Argentina, a temperate city which has been experiencing dengue emergence since 2009. We utilize the model to investigate the potential role of changes in climate patterns in the emergence of dengue in the city, and we explore the potential consequences of climate change on mosquito population and dengue transmission dynamics. We discuss our model results in the context of their potential implications for mosquito control and dengue mitigation strategies in Cordoba and other temperate cities, including U.S. cities where dengue emergence may be possible.