Modeling areas of climatic suitability of two invasive freshwater clams, under different climate change scenarios.

REYNA, PAOLA; BALLESTEROS, L; NORI, J; TATIÁN M; HUED, A

Buenos Aires

Congreso; MFIS Marine & Freshwater Invasive Species. Ecology, Impact and Management; 2016

AEMS/CONICET

In recent years, it is known that invasive species threaten native species, impacting on biodiversity and functioning of aquatic systems, and producing negative effects on economic and human activities. These threats are predicted to become more severe over the next century because of climate change. As results, the native and invasive species are forced to rapidly shift their ranges or to adapt themselves to the new conditions and in some cases; these changes could benefit invasive species. Corbicula largillierti and Corbicula fluminea are invasive freshwater clams native to Southeast Asia. In this context, the aim of the present work was to model worldwide areas of climatic suitability of the two mentioned species under different future scenarios (2050). We selected six environmental predictors (four climatic variables as well as altitude and flow direction), and applied an ensemble forecast approach among different algorithms to project the species distribution in current and future scenarios (INM, MIROC, IPSL, CCSM). The two clams showed concordance between the known presence distribution and the potential suitability. According to our results there were areas where the climatic suitability of the two species overlaps. However, C. fluminea had a wider distribution area than C. largillierti. The models show a shift in future climatic suitability, so the species could persist in their current distributions and expand their niches due to climate changes. Since one of the main vectors of dispersion of these clams is human activities, our results could be used to develop monitoring programs for aquatic freshwater ecosystems which are at risk of invasion.