Modelling the influence of environmental and weather factors on the density of the invasive polychaete Boccardia proboscidea

GARAFFO GV; LLANOS EN; SANCHEZ MA; ELIAS R; JAUBET ML; VALLARINO EA

MARINE ECOLOGY-PUBBLICAZIONI DELLA STAZIONE ZOOLOGICA DI NAPOLI I

WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC

Lugar: Londres; Año: 2016 vol. 37 p. 1256 - 1265

0173-9565

The intertidal zone around sewage discharges in a SW Atlantic shore (Mar del Plata, Argentina) is currently colonised by extensive intertidal reefs of invasive spionid Boccardia proboscidea. Understanding the links between both human and natural disturbances and the massive development of non-indigenous species will help prevent marine bioinvasions that are already favoured by global oceanic trade. We present herein predictive models for variations in the density of B. proboscidea around sewage discharges of Mar del Plata, using environmental (pH, turbidity, temperature, salinity and total organic matter content), weather (wind direction and storms record), spatial (sites) and temporal variables (season and year). Density variations were modelled by generalized linear models, and model averaging (multimodel inference) was used to obtain predicted values. The highest predicted values of B. proboscidea density occurred at sites to the south of the sewage effluent in spring. These sites are more affected by urban effluent discharges and they showed increased B. Proboscidea density when the north wind was predominant. In addition, B. Proboscidea density values were higher in sites with 20-22°C (seawater temperature), high total organic matter content in sediments and low salinity. Averaged model was only a good ?predictive model? in sites to the north of the outfall; but useful as "explanatory model" in all sites. Such predictions may better back up conservation and management policies and decisions.