CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Background: Whooping cough or pertussis, is a respiratory disease that is most severe in infants. Before childhood vaccination was introduced in the 1950s, pertussis was a major cause of infant mortality worldwide. The disease is now recognized as a frequent infection not only for infants but also for adults. The reasons for this epidemiological situation and strategies for disease control are matters of debate in the scientific community. Under this context, the mathematical models are being used increasingly as a tool not only for analysis but also predictions in order to contribute to the knowledge of this complex problem. Methods: In this study we present a compartmental model that in a simplistic way allow to describe the propagation of pertussis in Argentina and to assess the impact of changes in the vaccination schedule in the disease control. The model here presented considers that pertussis exposure through natural infection or vaccination induces an immune response that prevents severe disease and assumes that these protective effects are temporary due to waning of immunity. Results: Our study points out that the dose given at age 11 (recently introduced in Argentinian vaccination schedule) would decrease the incidence of the disease in the age group from 11 to 13 years old in a proportion of around 40%.. However, this reinforcement would have a much lower impact (less than 5 percent) for children under 1 year of age who are the most vulnerable group. Conclusions: Our study suggests that an effort directed towards vigilance that improves the coverage of the 2 month´s dose would produce a much higher impact in reducing the incidence of pertussis in the youngest child. Furthermore, the cocoon strategy could also reduce the disease.