IBBM   21076
INSTITUTO DE BIOTECNOLOGIA Y BIOLOGIA MOLECULAR
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
artículos
Título:
Non-mandatory immunization and its potential impact on pertussis epidemiology.
Autor/es:
BERGERO, PAULA ELENA; HOZBOR D; FABRICIUS, GABRIEL
Revista:
ARCHIVOS ARGENTINOS DE PEDIATRIA
Editorial:
SOC ARGENTINA PEDIATRIA
Referencias:
Año: 2018 vol. 116 p. 418 - 425
ISSN:
0325-0075
Resumen:
In this study, we performed a quantitative analysis of thepotential short-term consequences on pertussis of the draft billon Informed Consent for Immunization proposed in Argentinain 2017, which considers a non-mandatory immunizationschedule for minors. We used a mathematical model of pertussistransmission, which had been previously developed by ourgroup. It is considered that the mere presentation of the projectcauses a reduction in coverage because it creates suspicion onthe benefits of immunization. Assuming a 5 % annual reductionin coverage for 4 years as of 2018, in the next outbreak, severecases in infants younger than 1 year will increase more than100 % compared to the latest outbreak, with an estimated101 deaths. With a 10 % annual reduction in the coverages for4 years, the next outbreak would result in an increase of numberof cases of more than 200 %, with 163 deaths.