Predictive Modelling of Settlement Patterns in the Córdoba Province (Argentina, South America)

IZETA, ANDRÉS D.; BILOTTI, GIACOMO; CATTÁNEO, ROXANA

Auckland

Conferencia; 51st Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology International Conference; 2024

CAA Australasia

Predictive modelling is an open-box that includes all type of statistical analyses that can be used to “predict” an outcome. Although in very simple forms these models have always been used in archaeology, their formalisation dates back to the processual revolution. Today, understanding human-environmental relationship holds a central role in academic research, especially in environmental sciences, and archaeology has a central role in it. However, bridging the gap between often-inaccessible data and global research interests remains a challenge.In recent years, researchers at the Universidad Nacional de Córdoba and the CONICET compiled an extensive, standardised and up-to-date database of the archaeological sites throughout the Province of Córdoba (Argentina). The database contains 2390 sites, classified by chronology and typology. This is the first time that in this region a freely accessible and well-maintained database is available, paving the way for many types of spatial analyses and modelling. Furthermore, the availability of geomorphological and environmental variables and satellite imagery increase the possibilities of more accurate modelling.Our presentation aims to present the results of the first ever-carried predictive modelling in this region. Specifically, we focus on site location patterns and site-environmental relationship in order to understand past population’s behaviours in terms of settlement choice and its variation through time. Additionally, a more formal understanding of these dynamics will allow more precise modelling of archaeological potential, with positive outcomes in terms of heritage management and selection of suitable areas for surveys.We approach the predictive modelling by considering archaeological sites as point processes and carrying out Point Pattern Analyses (PPA), studying the underlying first and second-order effects generating the observed processes. We are interested in site intensity as a function of spatially continuous covariates, such as environmental and geomorphological variables. These variables are then used as predictors in the fitting of a Point Process Models to our data. Furthermore, our model incorporates the interactions between sites, in order to explore the relationship, stability, and changes in settlement patterns using a hybrid approach. We recognize the inherent challenge in fully disentangling first and second-order effects and addressing research biases. Therefore, we integrate these components in a more holistic and sustainable model.Notably, all analyses presented herein are conducted using free and open-source software, complemented by open data sources. This approach not only enhances the transparency and reproducibility of our research but also extends its educational impact to our respective institutions. By making these resources accessible, we aim to allow an increasing number of students and researchers to engage in quantitative analyses in archaeology in Argentina and South America.