Temporal percolation of the susceptible network in a epidemic spreading

L. D. VALDEZ; P. A. MACRI; L. A. BRAUNSTEIN

PLOS ONE

PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE

Lugar: San Francisco; Año: 2012 p. 44188 - 44188

1932-6203

In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of anepidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on topof complex networks. Using a edge-based compartmental approach and percolation tools,we find that the network composed by susceptible individuals undergoes a dynamic nodepercolation transition with a time dependent control parameter. We show that there existsa critical time tc above which the giant susceptible cluster is destroyed. As a consequence,in order to protect a large fraction of the susceptible individuals, any mitigation strategyshould be implemented before this critical time tc. Our theoretical results are confirmedby extensive simulations of the SIR process.