CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

RESUMEN: El presente trabajo presenta una metodología estadística que permite evaluar comparativamente dos propuestas normativas de reformas al Código Urbano y de Edificación de la ciudad de Mendoza (Argentina) con el fin de determinar estrategias de desarrollo urbano presente y futuro a partir del análisis de las consecuencias energético-ambientales de la implementación de dichas reformas, en función de sus características morfológicas y del recurso solar disponible. En una etapa previa se ha evaluado la reducción del acceso al sol comparando la situación de referencia (actual, sin cambios) respecto a su evolución futura a mediano y largo plazo resultantes de la nueva propuesta del municipio (PM) y de la propuesta alternativa (PA) desarrollada por la U+I. En una segunda etapa se ha desarrollado una metodología estadística para el análisis de ambas propuestas, que permite determinar el peso de cada variable morfológica urbano?edilicia, sobre el Factor de Asoleamiento Volumétrico (FAV), proponiendo además una ecuación sencilla que permite calcular el valor del indicador, lo que constituye la parte sustancial de este trabajo. Los resultados obtenidos indican que de implementarse la propuesta municipal (PM) la reducción de la energía solar disponible por unidad de volumen construido sería: 26,26 % a mediano plazo y 32,53% a largo plazo, comparada con la propuesta alternativa (PA) con lo que se concluye que existen diferencias altamente significativas entre los valores medios de FAV a mediano y largo plazo cuando se aplica la PM y cuando se aplica la PA. En la actualidad se están incorporando al análisis las variables: Altura Edilicia Máxima e Índice de Homogeneidad para posteriormente ajustar el modelo. STATISTICAL MODEL FOR THE PRESENT AND FUTURE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ASSESSMENT OF HIGH DENSITY URBAN AREAS IN THE BUILDING SECTOR. CASE: MENDOZA?S METROPOLITAN AREA, ARGENTINA. ABSTRACT: The study presents a statyistical methodology that allows to comparatively assess two normative proposals for modifying the Urban and Building code of the city of Mendoza (Argentina) with the purpose of determining the present and future urban design strategies, departing from the analysis of the energy and environmental consequences of implementing such strategies, as functions of their morphological features and the available solar resource. In a previous stage the reduction of solar access has been assessed by comparing the reference situation (present without changes) related to mid and long time future evolution , resulting from the simulated implementation of both new proposals: Municipal (PM) and Alternative (AP) developed by the I+D unit. On a second stage, a statystical methodology for the analysis of both proposals has been developed; it allows determining the relative weight of each urban and building variable on the Volumetric Insolation Factor (VIF), proposing besides a simple equation that allows calculating the value of the indicator, this being the substantial contribution of this study. The results obtained indicate that, if the MP were implemented, the reduction of available solar energy per built unit volume, would be 26.26 % in mid-time terms and 32.53 % in long term ones. When comparing these results to those of the AP, it is clear that significant differences are favouring the performance of the latter. Presently, two important variables are being incorporated to the models: the Maximum Building Height and the Homogeneity Index, for further adjusting of the model.The study presents a statyistical methodology that allows to comparatively assess two normative proposals for modifying the Urban and Building code of the city of Mendoza (Argentina) with the purpose of determining the present and future urban design strategies, departing from the analysis of the energy and environmental consequences of implementing such strategies, as functions of their morphological features and the available solar resource. In a previous stage the reduction of solar access has been assessed by comparing the reference situation (present without changes) related to mid and long time future evolution , resulting from the simulated implementation of both new proposals: Municipal (PM) and Alternative (AP) developed by the I+D unit. On a second stage, a statystical methodology for the analysis of both proposals has been developed; it allows determining the relative weight of each urban and building variable on the Volumetric Insolation Factor (VIF), proposing besides a simple equation that allows calculating the value of the indicator, this being the substantial contribution of this study. The results obtained indicate that, if the MP were implemented, the reduction of available solar energy per built unit volume, would be 26.26 % in mid-time terms and 32.53 % in long term ones. When comparing these results to those of the AP, it is clear that significant differences are favouring the performance of the latter. Presently, two important variables are being incorporated to the models: the Maximum Building Height and the Homogeneity Index, for further adjusting of the model. Keywords: Urban sustainability, urban morphology, solar access.Urban sustainability, urban morphology, solar access.