Mountain Permafrost Distribution in the Andes of Chubut (Argentina) based on a Statistical Model

RUIZ, LUCAS.; TROMBOTTO, DARIO.

Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Permafrost

International Permafrost Association

Año: 2012;

An important debate generated by a new federal regulation in Argentina, places mountain permafrost distribution and the potential of ground ice for water storage in the center of the scene. The main problem is related to the lack of field data on a regional scale. With the aim to solve this problem, in the Precordillera of Chubut, Argentina, a statistical model of mountain permafrost distribution based on BTS (Bottom Temperature of Snow cover) was presented. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to reproduce BTS distribution with elevation and potential short-wave radiation as independent variables. Then a threshold classification was applied to BTS distribution in order to discriminate between Probable, Possible and No Possible Permafrost zones. The model pointed out that, mountain permafrost, related with high elevation south facing or highly cast shadow zone, may exist. Although the model was statistically significant, it is necessary to confirm the presence of permafrost by ground truthing.