IANIGLA   20881
INSTITUTO ARGENTINO DE NIVOLOGIA, GLACIOLOGIA Y CIENCIAS AMBIENTALES
Unidad Ejecutora - UE
artículos
Título:
High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects.
Autor/es:
JONES, P.D.; BRIFFA, K.R.; OSBORN, T.J.; LOUGH, J.M.; VAN OMMEN, T.D.; VINTHER, B.M.; LUTERBACHER, J.; WAHL, E.R.; ZWIERS, F.W.; MANN, M.E.; SCHMIDT, G.A.; AMMANN, C.M.; BUCKLEY, B.M.; COBB, K.M.; ESPER, J.; GOOSSE, H.; GRAHAM, N.; JANSEN, E.; KEIFER, T.; KULL, C.; KÜTTEL, M.; MOSLEY-THOMPSON, E.; OVERPECK, J.T.; RIEDWYL, N.; SCHULZ, M.; TUDHOPE, A.W.; VILLALBA, R.; WANNER, H.; WOLFF, E.; XOPLAKI, E.
Revista:
HOLOCENE (SEVENOAKS)
Editorial:
SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD
Referencias:
Lugar: London; Año: 2009 vol. 19 p. 3 - 49
ISSN:
0959-6836
Resumen:
Abstract: This review of late-Holocene palaeoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted
using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified
timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction
techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling
should be concentrated.
Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution
proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their
use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate
proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures
and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate
model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which
current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies
derived from climate model runs, where the answer is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations.
First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well
as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better
distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding
of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities
should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy
records ought to be in agreement and which no