20th-century glacier recession and regional hydroclimatic changes

MASIOKAS, M.; VILLALBA, R.; LUCKMAN, B.; LASCANO M.; DELGADO, S.; STEPANEK, P.

GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE

Elsevier

Año: 2008 p. 85 - 100

0921-8181

Abstract This paper documents the occurrence of significant glacier and hydroclimatic changes in northwestern Patagonia during the past century. Drastic, widespread glacier recession is documented by repeat photography of some of the earliest glacier images from southern South America. Linear trends in regionally-averaged annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation records indicate significant warming and decreasing precipitation over the 1912–2002 interval. A climatic index is developed, based on winter precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspondwith known evidence of glacier advances in the region.Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflowrecords east of themountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38° and 45°S. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the futurewarmer and drier climates projected for this region. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspondwith known evidence of glacier advances in the region.Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflowrecords east of themountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38° and 45°S. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the futurewarmer and drier climates projected for this region. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspondwith known evidence of glacier advances in the region.Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflowrecords east of themountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38° and 45°S. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the futurewarmer and drier climates projected for this region. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspondwith known evidence of glacier advances in the region.Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflowrecords east of themountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38° and 45°S. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the futurewarmer and drier climates projected for this region. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspondwith known evidence of glacier advances in the region.Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflowrecords east of themountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38° and 45°S. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the futurewarmer and drier climates projected for this region. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspondwith known evidence of glacier advances in the region.Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflowrecords east of themountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38° and 45°S. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the futurewarmer and drier climates projected for this region. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspondwith known evidence of glacier advances in the region.Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflowrecords east of themountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38° and 45°S. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the futurewarmer and drier climates projected for this region. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. –2002 interval. A climatic index is developed, based on winter precipitation and summer temperature records, that mimics glacier mass balance relationships and shows a strong negative trend which agrees with the drastic glacier recession shown by the photographic comparisons. Short positive periods of this climatic index broadly correspondwith known evidence of glacier advances in the region.Regionally-averaged mean annual streamflowrecords east of themountains were used in an independent verification check of the climatic series used in this study. This regional runoff record shows a strong negative trend, remarkable similarities with the climatic index, and highly significant positive (negative) correlations with the regional precipitation (temperature) series. This highlights the existence of a strong, regionally coherent hydroclimatic signal across this region and supports the utility of these records as environmental indicators for northwestern Patagonia between ca. 38° and 45°S. Given the significant socio-economic importance of rivers and glaciers in this area, further research is needed to evaluate the full range of natural hydroclimate variability and improve understanding of potential impacts of the futurewarmer and drier climates projected for this region. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: North Patagonian Andes; repeat photography; glacier recession; hydroclimatic variabilityNorth Patagonian Andes; repeat photography; glacier recession; hydroclimatic variability