INVESTIGADORES
PREZZI Claudia Beatriz
artículos
Título:
Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence
Autor/es:
SILBERGLEIT, VIRGINIA; PREZZI, CLAUDIA BEATRIZ
Revista:
NATURAL HAZARDS (DORDRECHT)
Editorial:
SPRINGER
Referencias:
Año: 2012 vol. 62 p. 445 - 458
ISSN:
0921-030X
Resumen:
In this work we consider historical earthquakes registered in Chile (from 1900 up to 2010) with epicenters located between 19-40°S latitude, in order to evaluate the probabilities of the occurrence of strong earthquakes and tsunamis along Chile in the near future. Applying Gumbel´s technique of first asymptotic distribution, we estimate that during the next decade strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes larger than 8.9 could occur along Chile. The obtained value indicates that a Chilean earthquake greater than the prior ones (observed during the last 120 years) would occur during the next ten years. Particularly in the very well known "seismic gap" of Arica, a convergence motion between Nazca and South American plates of 77-78 mm/year represents more than 10 m of displacement accumulated since the last big interplate subduction earthquake in this area over 134 years ago. Therefore, this area already has the potential for an earthquake of magnitude > 8.