INVESTIGADORES
BODANZA Gustavo Adrian
artículos
Título:
Sets or frequencies: how to help people solve conditional probability problems
Autor/es:
MORO, RODRIGO; BODANZA, GUSTAVO ADRIÁN; FREIDIN, ESTEBAN
Revista:
JOURNAL OF COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY
Editorial:
Taylor and Francis
Referencias:
Año: 2011 vol. 23 p. 843 - 843
ISSN:
2044-5911
Resumen:
Since the 1970s, the Heuristics and Biases Program in Cognitive Psychology has shown that people do not reason correctly about conditional probability problems. In the 1990s, however, evolutionary psychologists  discovered  that  if  the  same  problems  are  presented  in  a  different  way,  people’s  performance greatly improves. Two explanations have been offered to account for this facilitation effect: the natural frequency hypothesis and the nested-set hypothesis. The empirical evidence on this debate is mixed. We review the literature pointing out some methodological issues that we take into account in our own present experiments. We interpret our results as suggesting that when the mentioned methodological problems are tackled, the evidence seems to favour the natural frequency hypothesis and to go against the nested-set hypothesis.