INVESTIGADORES
VERA Carolina Susana
artículos
Título:
Predictability of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere from CHFP models
Autor/es:
OSMAN, MARISOL; VERA, CAROLINA; DOBLAS-REYES, FRANCISCO
Revista:
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Editorial:
SPRINGER
Referencias:
Lugar: Berlin; Año: 2016 vol. 46 p. 2423 - 2434
ISSN:
0930-7575
Resumen:
An assessment of the predictability and predictionskill of the tropospheric circulation in the SouthernHemisphere was done. The analysis is based on seasonalforecasts of geopotential heights at 200, 500 and 850 hPa,for austral summer and winter from 11 models participatingin the Climate Historical Forecast Project. It is foundthat predictability (signal-to-variance ratio) and predictionskill (anomaly correlation) in the tropics is higher than inthe extratropics and is also higher in summer than in winter.Both predictability and skill are higher at high than atlow altitudes. Modest values of predictability and skill arefound at polar latitudes in the Bellinghausen-AmundsenSeas. The analysis of the changes in predictability and predictionskill in ENSO events reveals that both are slightlyhigher in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) yearsthan in all years, while the spatial patterns of maxima andminima remain unchanged. Changes in signal-to-noiseratio observed are mainly due to signal changes ratherthan changes in noise. Composites of geopotential heightsanomalies for El Niño and La Niña years are in agreementwith observations.