Constructing the Average Natural History of HIV-1 Infection

L. DIAMBRA; A. CAPURRO; C.P. MALTA

Mar del Plata, Argentina

Conferencia; Nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics and Nonlinear Physics, XV Conference; 2006

Many aspects of the natural course of the HIV-1 infection remains unclear, despite important efforts towards understanding its long-term dynamics. Using a scaling approach that places progression markers (viral load, CD4+, CD8+) of many individuals on a single average natural course of disease progression, we introduce the concept of inter-individual scaling and time scaling. Our quantitative assessment of the natural course of HIV-1 infection indicates that the dynamics of the evolution for the individual that developed AIDS (opportunistic infections) is different from that of the individual that did not develop AIDS. This means that the rate of progression is not relevant for the infection evolution.